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This inference is less reliable (and thus more likely to commit the fallacy of hasty generalization) than a statistical generalization, first, because the sample events are non-random, and second because it is not reducible to mathematical expression. Therefore, by season's end, they will have won about 60% of the games. So far, this year his son's Little League team has won 6 of 10 games. In other words, the generalization is based on anecdotal evidence. Anecdotal generalization Īn anecdotal generalization is a type of inductive argument in which a conclusion about a population is inferred using a non-statistical sample. Statistical generalizations are also called statistical projections and sample projections. Therefore, about 60% of people are Libertarians." The argument is weak because the sample is non-random and the sample size is very small. "Six of the ten people in my book club are Libertarians. Compare the preceding argument with the following. The measure is highly reliable within a well-defined margin of error provided the sample is large and random. Therefore, approximately 66% of voters support Measure Z. Of a sizeable random sample of voters surveyed, 66% support Measure Z. The hasty generalization and the biased sample are generalization fallacies.Ī statistical generalization is a type of inductive argument in which a conclusion about a population is inferred using a statistically-representative sample. How much the premises support the conclusion depends upon (1) the number in the sample group, (2) the number in the population, and (3) the degree to which the sample represents the population (which may be achieved by taking a random sample). An inductive generalization would be that there are 15 black and 5 white balls in the urn. To estimate their respective numbers, you draw a sample of four balls and find that three are black and one is white. Therefore, the proportion Q of the population has attribute A.įor example, say there are 20 balls-either black or white-in an urn. The proportion Q of the sample has attribute A. The observation obtained from this sample is projected onto the broader population. A generalization (more accurately, an inductive generalization) proceeds from a premise about a sample to a conclusion about the population.